Brunei energy demand to fall: ADB
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
BRUNEI’S demand for crude energy is expected to go down by 2035 as the country uses more efficient power generators, a report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) said.
The country report, contained in the ADB’s latest Energy Outlook and published last month, said that Brunei’s primary energy demand will decrease to 3.08 metric tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) by 2035 from 3.16 Mtoe in 2010, at an annual rate of 0.1 per cent.
Primary energy consumption is the direct use, without transformation, of crude energy.
“The country’s per capita energy demand will drop to 5.64 Toe (tonnes of oil equivalent) per person, compared with 7.92 Toe in 2010,” ADB added.
ADB said that this assumes that renewable energy will continue to contribute a small share of the total energy mix of the country, at 2.3 per cent by 2035.
It also assumes that gas and oil, which will have a share of 67.9 per cent and 29.8 per cent respectively in 2035 from 76.1 per cent and 23.9 per cent respectively in 2010, will continue to dominate the energy mix, the bank added.
The report said that in an alternative scenario, which factors in the deployment of advanced technologies that allow energy savings, Brunei’s primary energy consumption will register a bigger drop.
According to ADB, under this scenario, Brunei’s primary energy consumption will drop 0.6 per cent a year to 2.74 Mtoe by 2035, 0.34 Mtoe lower than the normal, business-as-usual scenario.
This scenario assumes that renewable energy would account for a bigger share in the primary energy demand, at 5.7 per cent by 2035.
The power sector will account for the biggest potential energy savings, at 0.18 Mtoe by 2035.
ADB attributed this to energy conservation measures that would push users to reduce demand for the commodity and the use of more efficient power plants, ADB said.
“Progress in energy conservation in the industry, residential and commercial sectors will reduce electricity demand, and thus the needed fuel input for the power plants,” it said.
“In the alternative case, Brunei Darussalam’s electricity generation in 2035 will be 3.40 TWh (terawatt-hours), 15 per cent lower than in the (business as usual) case. The efficiency improvement achieved through the development of gas-fired combined-cycle power plants will also contribute to the energy savings in the power sector,” it said.
Transport will also save 0.07 Mtoe in energy as the country shifts towards more efficient hybrid and electric vehicles, the report added.
The bank noted potential energy savings of 0.05 Mtoe from the residential and commercial users, and 0.04 Mtoe for industries.
“The residential and commercial sectors’ energy savings are mainly a result of electricity savings from the deployment of efficient appliances. The major appliances that contribute to the energy savings are air conditioners and lighting in the residential sector, and cooling in the commercial sector,” ADB said.
“The industry sector’s savings will be achieved by the deployment of advanced technologies in the various industry subsectors, especially in the efficient improvement in the oil refining and chemical industry,” it added.
Final energy demand, however, will continue to rise by 1.3 per cent annually during the period, the report said.
Final energy demand is the total energy used by end users, such as households, industry and agriculture, excluding what is consumed by the energy sector.
Final energy demand for non-energy use will get the biggest share of the total as Brunei develops its chemical industry, ADB said.
This will grow by 2.7 per cent per year, with its share in the final energy consumption pie rising to 28.9 per cent in 2035 from from 20.4 per cent in 2010, the report said.
The industry sector will see a 1.4 per cent growth in final energy demand, with its share of the total increasing slightly to to 19.5 per cent in 2035 from 19.2 per cent in 2010 , the report said.
“The development in the industry sector, especially the chemical manufacturing subsector, will likely raise Brunei Darussalam’s overall energy intensity, greenhouse gas emissions, and domestic energy demand due to significant own-use or energy in these industrial processes,” the bank said.
The rise in transport’s final energy consumption will be contained at 0.8 per cent per year, with its share reduced to 30.7 per cent in 2035 from 34.6 per cent in 2010.
Other sectors including residential, commercial, agriculture and fishery will register an annual growth of 0.5 per cent, but their share will fall to 20.9 per cent in 2035 from 25.8 per cent in 2010.
ADB said that over the outlook period, Brunei is seen to continue to be heavily dependent on energy exports to support its economy.
“A heavy dependence on exports means that the country’s economic development is vulnerable to fluctuations in the flobal market. Declining production is also impairing Brunei Darussalan’s capacity to deal with the risks,” the bank added.
The ADB’s energy demand forecast projects that Brunei’s economy would grow at annual rate of 1.7 per cent, to US$10.45 billion by 2035, 52.1 per cent higher than the GDP in 2010.
- with Al-Haadi Abu Bakar
The Brunei Times
